BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA’S EU INTEGRATION IN THE SHADOW OF THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR: THREAT OR OPPORTUNITY?

ABSTRACT The geopolitical upheaval triggered by Russia-Ukraine war has induced significant shifts in European security architecture and enlargement policy, with profound implications for the Western Balkans. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), a country still grappling with internal divisions and institutional fragility three decades after the Dayton Peace Agreement, has emerged as a critical focal point within this readjusted geopolitical context. The European Union's (EU) enlargement policy, which has stalled due to both Bosnia's internal problems and the challenges the EU has encountered, has begun a new phase after the Russia-Ukraine war. BiH was swiftly recognized as a candidate for European Union membership in the wake of the war and received greenlight to start accession negotiations. This study investigates whether the Russian-Ukrainian war, which both disrupted Bosnia's internal balance by encouraging the separatist rhetoric of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik and meanwhile opened the door to faster EU integration, constitutes a threat or an opportunity for Bosnia's European future. The study argues that the answer hinges on whether the EU adopts a renewed enlargement strategy that simultaneously addresses security concerns and democratic reforms, while placing particular emphasis on Serbia.