ASSESSMENT OF POPULATION HEALTH IN THE LOWER REACH OF THE SYRDARYA RIVER IN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIMENSIONS

Current studies of public health in Kyzylorda region, located in the lower reaches of the Syrdarya River within a zone of technogenic pollution, are based on medical–statistical approaches using linear trend methods. These methods provide a scientific basis for understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of population health. Using data from the statistical collection “Health of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Activities of Health Care Organizations” (Department of Medical and Statistical Analysis, National Scientific Center for Health Development named after Sagadat Kairbekova), covering the years 2000–2022, an electronic database was compiled for the population health of Kyzylorda region by administrative districts. A statistically grounded assessment of morbidity parameters across districts, conducted with linear trend analysis in Microsoft Excel, revealed both positive and negative trends over the study period. The resulting functional equations of morbidity dynamics in the form of linear trends provide a scientific foundation for forecasting the socio-ecological potential of the region.