Unveiling Tipping Points in European Sustainability: A Nonlinear MARS Approach to People, Planet, and Prosperity

This study investigates sustainable development in Europe, moving beyond simple SDG scores and linear models. Using data from 2000 to 2024 across European countries, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to create indices for the People, Planet, and Prosperity domains of sustainable development. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARSs) captured nonlinearities and interactions in the influence of these domains on sustainable development on the European continent. The results show that progress depends on crossing key thresholds rather than gradual change. In the People domain, exceeding minimum levels leads to significant gains. The Planet domain acts as both stabiliser and constraint: moderate ecological performance fosters progress, while extremes hinder it. Prosperity has modest direct effects but becomes influential when combined with social and environmental factors. Interactions reveal that sustainable development arises from domain synergies, with social progress offering the most significant leverage. The findings indicate the need to target lagging regions to surpass social thresholds, protect ecological stability, and ground prosperity in inclusive, eco-friendly frameworks. Overall, the study highlights how data-driven methods can identify tipping points in sustainability and provides a transferable framework for achieving the 2030 Agenda.