MONITORING AND FORECASTING METHODS OF AVALANCHE HAZARD IN KAZAKHSTAN: ADVANTAGES, DISADVANTAGES, AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS

This review examines existing and emerging methods for snow cover monitoring and avalanche forecasting. An analysis of national and international studies in this field was conducted. The advantages and limitations of currently used forecasting techniques were identified. In the operational practice of the avalanche division of the national hydrometeorological service, manual monitoring and forecasting methods developed in the 1970s–1980s remain in use. Their strengths lie in simplicity, low cost, and reliability, which explains their continued application within the observation station network. However, end users receive not precise forecasts of individual avalanche events but rather general recommendations and indicative assessments for large territories. Under present conditions, the accuracy of equipment and the quality of warnings no longer meet the needs of many information users. This paper reviews global experience and recent advances in avalanche monitoring and forecasting, analyzes promising approaches, and provides recommendations for their implementation. Key directions for strengthening avalanche services include the transition to automated monitoring systems, the adoption of probabilistic forecasting methods, the application of numerical weather prediction, and the integration of artificial intelligence for hazard assessment. Nevertheless, the practical implementation of advanced research requires the development of updated regulatory and training frameworks. A critical limitation of many modeling and remote sensing techniques is the absence of calibration against field observations. To ensure their operational use, preliminary studies must be carried out to quantify errors and establish calibration standards.