Bayesian multivariate track geometry degradation modeling and its use in condition-based inspection

Abstract Effective maintenance of railway infrastructure is crucial for safe and comfortable transportation. Among the various degradation modes, track geometry deformation due to repeated loading significantly impacts operational safety. Detecting and maintaining acceptable track geometry involve the use of track recording vehicles (TRVs) that inspect and record geometric parameters. This study aims to develop a novel track geometry degradation model that considers multiple indicators and their correlations, accounting for both imperfect manual and mechanized tamping. A multivariate Wiener model is formulated to capture the characteristics of track geometry degradation. To address data limitations, a hierarchical Bayesian approach with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation is employed. This research contributes to the analysis of a multivariate predictive model, which considers the correlation between the degradation rates of multiple indicators, providing insights for rail operators and new track-monitoring systems. The model’s performance is validated through a real-world case study on a commuter track in Queensland, Australia, using actual data and independent test datasets. Additionally, the study demonstrates the application of the proposed multivariate degradation model in developing a condition-based inspection policy for track geometry, potentially reducing the number of TRVs runs while maintaining abnormal detection levels and failure rates.