Data-Driven Prediction of Kinematic Transmission Error and Tonal Noise Risk in EV Gearboxes Based on Manufacturing Tolerances

Although numerous studies have used ML to predict gear transmission error, few have provided a normalized, interpretable risk metric for early tolerance assessment. This work fills that gap by proposing the Tonal Risk Index (TRI). Kinematic Transmission Error (KTE) is a well-established primary excitation source of tonal gear noise in electric vehicle drivetrains. This study introduces the TRI, a novel, dimensionless indicator that quantifies relative tonal noise risk directly from predicted KTE values. We employ a large-scale dataset of 39,984 Monte Carlo simulations comprising 15 manufacturing tolerance and process-shift variables, with KTE values as the target. Baseline linear regression failed to capture the strongly non-linear relationships between tolerances and KTE (R2 ≈ 0), whereas non-linear models—Random Forest and XGBoost—achieved high predictive accuracy (R2 ≈ 0.82). Feature importance analysis revealed that pitch error, radial run-out, and misalignment are consistently the most influential parameters, with notable interaction effects such as pitch error × run-out and misalignment × form-defect shift. The TRI normalises predicted KTE values to a 0–1 scale, enabling rapid comparison of tolerance configurations in terms of tonal excitation risk. This approach supports early-stage design decision-making, reduces reliance on high-fidelity simulations and physical prototypes, and aligns with sustainability objectives by lowering material usage and energy consumption. The results demonstrate that data-driven surrogate models, combined with the TRI metric, can effectively bridge the gap between manufacturing tolerances and NVH performance assessment.