Energy Capacity Evolution: Predicting Future Trends in RE and Non-RE Sectors using ARIMA and SARIMA (2014-2023 to 2033)

The present study aims to predict India's energy capacity for the period of 2024-2033, with emphasis on renewable and non-renewable energy sectors. Using the historical data for the period 2014-2023, the ARIMA and SARIMA models are applied to predict trends in Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro, and Renewable Energy (RE) capacities along with total energy capacity, growth rate, and share of RE in the energy mix. It reveals the importance of renewable energy with predictions of SARIMA having a steeper growth rate than ARIMA. The model takes into account seasonality, and hence it finds an increase in RE capacity. Results indicate a strong growth path for renewables, which rise from 43.12% in 2024 to 67.60% in 2033. The study provides insightful evidence for energy policy, planning, and investment decisions. The study underlines the need for continued investment in both RE and non-renewable sectors to cater to India's energy needs while driving forward sustainability goals in the coming years.