The Repression-Dissent Nexus in High-Threat Environments: Evidence From the Romanian Gulag

This paper investigates how exposure to political repression shapes dissent in high-threat environments in the long term. We develop a theory of repression-induced norm formation, arguing that proximity to repressive institutions fosters anti-regime identities and increases the propensity for dissident behavior, even when the costs of dissent remain high. Using the case of the Romanian Gulag, we demonstrate that localities which hosted labor camps or extermination sites during the communist era saw a disproportionately higher number of severe injuries during the 1989 Revolution. Leveraging an original geocoded dataset of Gulag facilities, we show that localities with Gulag facilities had, on average, 5 times more people seriously injured in confrontations with government forces during the anti-communist Revolution of 1989. We also provide mixed-methods mechanistic evidence that this effect is partly driven by anti-communist norms developed in response to the Gulag, and not just by shifts in the political opportunity structure.