Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic

COVID-19 has underscored the need for more timely access to vaccines during future pandemics. This has motivated development of broad-spectrum vaccines providing protection against entire viral families, which could be stockpiled and deployed rapidly following detection. Using mathematical modelling, we assess the utility of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine during a hypothetical SARS-X outbreak, for a range of implementation strategies including ring-vaccination, spatial-targeting and mass vaccination of high-risk groups. Broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine ring- or spatial strategies alone are insufficient to contain epidemics driven by a SARS-CoV-2-like virus, but when paired with rapid isolation and quarantine, can achieve containment of a SARS-CoV-1-like virus. Where suppression fails, broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine utilisation still reduces the effective reproduction number and slows epidemic growth - buying valuable time for health-system response and virus-specific vaccine development. Vaccination of high-risk populations with the broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine ahead of virus-specific vaccine availability could reduce mortality and enable shorter and less stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions to be imposed; results are sensitive to vaccine properties (e.g., efficacy), health system capabilities (e.g. rollout speed) and timeline to virus-specific vaccine availability. Our modelling suggests that broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine delivery to those aged 60+ years could have averted 21-78 % of COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic's first year, depending on the size of the stockpile. Realising this potential impact will require investment in manufacturing, delivery capacity and equitable access ahead of future pandemics.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-09-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63399-x
Citations
4
Primary Topic
SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
5.58

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article

Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic

Lilith K. Whittles, Gemma Nedjati‐Gilani, Azra C. Ghani, Chee Wah Tan et al.
4 citations
Nature Communications
SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
5.58
article

Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic

Lilith K. Whittles, Gemma Nedjati‐Gilani, Azra C. Ghani, Chee Wah Tan, Katharina Hauck, Daniel J. Laydon, Oliver John Watson, Rob Johnson, David Chien Lye, Victoria Cox, Lin‐Fa Wang, Patrick Doohan, Feng Zhu, Gregory Barnsley, Charles Whittaker, Arminder Deol, Alexandra B. Hogan, Daniela Olivera Mesa, Peter Winskill, Christinah Mukandavire
article en
4 citations

Abstract

COVID-19 has underscored the need for more timely access to vaccines during future pandemics. This has motivated development of broad-spectrum vaccines providing protection against entire viral families, which could be stockpiled and deployed rapidly following detection. Using mathematical modelling, we assess the utility of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine during a hypothetical SARS-X outbreak, for a range of implementation strategies including ring-vaccination, spatial-targeting and mass vaccination of high-risk groups. Broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine ring- or spatial strategies alone are insufficient to contain epidemics driven by a SARS-CoV-2-like virus, but when paired with rapid isolation and quarantine, can achieve containment of a SARS-CoV-1-like virus. Where suppression fails, broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine utilisation still reduces the effective reproduction number and slows epidemic growth - buying valuable time for health-system response and virus-specific vaccine development. Vaccination of high-risk populations with the broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine ahead of virus-specific vaccine availability could reduce mortality and enable shorter and less stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions to be imposed; results are sensitive to vaccine properties (e.g., efficacy), health system capabilities (e.g. rollout speed) and timeline to virus-specific vaccine availability. Our modelling suggests that broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine delivery to those aged 60+ years could have averted 21-78 % of COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic's first year, depending on the size of the stockpile. Realising this potential impact will require investment in manufacturing, delivery capacity and equitable access ahead of future pandemics.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
SingHealth (SG), National University of Singapore (SG), Nanyang Technological University (SG), Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society (US), Tan Tock Seng Hospital (SG), UNSW Sydney (AU), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (NO), Duke-NUS Medical School (SG), Berkeley Public Health Division (US), National University Health System (SG), National Centre for Infectious Diseases (SG), Imperial College London (GB), University of California, Berkeley (US)
Wellcome Trust, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, European Commission, Medical Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
5.58
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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