A Two-Stage Hybrid Modeling Strategy for Early-Age Concrete Temperature Prediction Using Decoupled Physical Processes

Predicting early-age temperature evolution in mass concrete is crucial for controlling thermal cracks. This process involves two distinct physical stages: an initial, hydration-driven heating stage (Stage I) and a subsequent, environment-dominated cooling stage (Stage II). To address this challenge, we propose a novel two-stage hybrid modeling strategy that decouples the underlying physical processes. This approach was developed and validated using a 450-h on-site monitoring dataset. For the deterministic heating phase (Stage I), we employed polynomial regression. For the subsequent stochastic cooling phase (Stage II), a Random Forest algorithm was used to model the complex environmental interactions. The proposed hybrid model was benchmarked against several alternatives, including a physics-based finite element model (FEM) and a single Random Forest model. During the critical cooling stage, our approach demonstrated superior performance, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.24 °C. This represents a 17.2% improvement over the best-performing single model. Furthermore, cumulative error analysis indicated that the hybrid model maintained a stable and unbiased prediction trend throughout the monitoring period. This addresses a key weakness in single-stage models, where underlying phase-specific errors can accumulate and lead to long-term drift. The proposed framework offers an accurate, robust, and transferable paradigm for modeling other complex engineering processes that exhibit distinct multi-stage characteristics.