Modelling climate-driven range shifts in the distribution of Lantana camara in Ethiopia

Lantana camara L, an invasive species, threatens biodiversity and agricultural systems globally. Its spread is influenced by human activities and climate change, but the interaction between these factors and its invasion is not well understood. This study examines how climate change affects the suitable habitat of L. camara in Ethiopia, focusing on current and future distributions (2020–2100s) under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Using 458 occurrence points and 27 environmental variables (19 climatic, 3 topographic, 5 soil), we applied the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to predict the species' distribution across 1.16 million km2. The model showed excellent performance, with an average AUC of 0.976 and TSS of 0.809, indicating strong agreement between observed and predicted distributions. Under current conditions, approximately 23.71% of Ethiopia's land (250,851 km2) is suitable for L. camara. Key factors influencing its distribution include altitude (29.3%), slope (27.3%), and annual precipitation (12.2%). The species thrives below 2000 m above sea level, especially in areas with west and southeast-facing slopes and annual precipitation around 800 mm. Future projections indicate a decline in suitable habitats for L. camara under all climate scenarios. By the 2030s, highly suitable habitats could decrease by 39.76% under SSP585, with a further 60.26% loss by the 2090s. However, some areas may experience habitat expansion. Overall, the distribution of L. camara, an invasive plant, poses significant threats to ecosystem resilience, food security, and climate adaptation in Ethiopia. Mid-altitude regions with warm temperatures and adequate rainfall are most vulnerable and represents future high-risk areas. In conclusion, targeted management interventions are crucial to mitigate these risks and support sustainable development goals. Therefore, we recommend prioritizing high-risk areas for focused control measures, including mechanical removal, community-based eradication, and integrated weed management strategies.