TÜRKİYE’DE MALİ DİSİPLİNİN SAĞLANMASINDA KAMU HARCAMALARININ ETKİSİ (1999-2023 DÖNEMİ)

In the study, the effects of data on the nominal values of central government public expenditures, public revenues, budget balance and public net debt stock in Turkey and their shares in GDP in terms of ensuring fiscal discipline was analyzed and evaluated. As a result of the analysis and evaluation process; It is observed that although Turkey is financially stronger compared to 1999, the fiscal discipline provided after 2002 was maintained until 2013 and a gradually deteriorating process was entered after this year. In addition, it is noteworthy that fiscal discipline was provided until 2017 by supporting it with one-time revenues (tax amnesty, zoning amnesty, asset amnesty, paid military service, privatization revenues, early transfer of Central Bank profits, etc.). Later, it is observed that the period of double-digit (11.14) inflation returned in 2017 as a result of entering into an election economy, financing the increasing budget deficit with irrational policies and Central Bank resources triggered inflation even more. It has been determined that public debt stocks have also started to increase due to rising inflation increasing borrowing interest rates, and the ratio to GDP, which was 8.1% in 2017, increased sharply to 13.1% in 2018 and rose to 21.2% in 2023.The neglect of fiscal discipline in Turkey throughout the 1990s led to the deterioration of public financial balances and deepening of macroeconomic instability. The 2001 crisis that emerged as a result of this process was the result of structural weaknesses and fiscal indiscipline. In an environment where the goal of fiscal discipline is deviated from, when lessons are not learned from past experiences and necessary structural reforms are not implemented, similar crises become inevitable. In this context, establishing fiscal discipline and ensuring its sustainability maintains its importance as a priority policy requirement in terms of preserving economic stability and reducing macroeconomic vulnerabilities.