A model of selective integration: higher education dynamics in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Purpose This paper aims to develop and apply a “selective integration” model to explain the dynamics of cross-border higher education in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). It investigates the tensions between top-down, state-steered integration policies and the bottom-up, functional collaboration among universities. The study identifies the key drivers and barriers shaping regional integration by analysing policy design, cross-border university alliances and individual institutional strategies. Design/methodology/approach The analytical framework draws from theories of regional integration in political science combining three theoretical perspectives – sovereign, neo-functionalist and institutionalist – to analyse higher education integration across four dimensions: functional, academic, structural and cultural. This framework is applied through a qualitative, multi-component research design comprising: a systematic analysis of key policy documents; a case study of the GBA University Alliance and an analysis of the strategic responses of two leading Hong Kong universities and their mainland campuses. Findings The findings reveal a “selective integration” model where progress is highly uneven. Integration is actively promoted and advances rapidly in the functional and academic dimensions where it aligns with state-steered economic and technological goals and is enabled by university adaptation. However, integration is systematically constrained and progress is minimal in the structural and cultural dimensions, where deep-seated political differences and the preservation of regional autonomy act as powerful barriers. Research limitations/implications The study presents a novel framework combining political science integration theories, and higher education studies on cross-border higher education and internationalisation. In so doing it contributes a model of “permission-based spillover,” demonstrating how integration is achieved across political, historical and cultural boundaries. This model challenges the more traditional binary between deep supranational integration (e.g. the EU) and cautious intergovernmentalism, offering a framework for understanding state-steered regional integration where economic and technological synergies are pursued without threatening political autonomy. Originality/value This paper offers a novel interdisciplinary framework for analysing regional integration of higher education in politically complex and asymmetrical environments. The “selective integration” model provides a nuanced understanding of the GBA and serves as a crucial analytical counterpoint to the EU’s supranational model. It offers insights for other regions, such as ASEAN and Mercosur, that also navigate the tension between economic integration and the preservation of national sovereignty and regional autonomy, providing a guide for policymakers and university leaders in developing effective cross-border strategies.