Evaporation Duct Height Short-Term Prediction Based on Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization

Accurately predicting evaporation duct height (EDH) is a crucial technology for enabling over-the-horizon communication and radar detection at sea. To address the issues of overfitting in neural network training and the low efficiency of manual hyperparameter tuning in conventional evaporation duct height (EDH) prediction, this study proposes the application of Bayesian optimization (BO)-based deep learning techniques to EDH forecasting. Specifically, we developed a novel BO–LSTM hybrid model to enhance the predictive accuracy of EDH. First, based on the CFSv2 reanalysis data from 2011 to 2020, we employed the NPS model to calculate the hourly evaporation duct height (EDH) over the Yongshu Reef region in the South China Sea. Then, the Mann–Kendall (M–K) method and the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test were employed to analyze the overall trend and stationarity of the EDH time series in the Yongshu Reef area. The results indicate a significant declining trend in EDH in recent years, and the time series is stationary. This suggests that the data can enhance the convergence speed and prediction stability of neural network models. Finally, the BO–LSTM model was utilized for 24 h short-term forecasting of the EDH time series. The results demonstrate that BO–LSTM can effectively predict EDH values for the next 24 h, with the prediction accuracy gradually decreasing as the forecast horizon extends. Specifically, the 1 h forecast achieves a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.592 m, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.407 m, and a model goodness-of-fit (R2) of 0.961. In contrast, the 24 h forecast shows an RMSE of 2.393 m, MAE of 1.808 m, and R2 of only 0.362. A comparative analysis between BO–LSTM and LSTM reveals that BO–LSTM exhibits marginally superior accuracy over LSTM for 1–15 h forecasts, with its performance advantage becoming increasingly pronounced for longer forecast horizons. This confirms that the Bayesian optimization-based hyperparameter tuning method significantly enhances model prediction accuracy.