Assessing the Giant Panda Protected Areas and Habitat Trends for Sympatric Endangered Species: A Climate Change Perspective

Climate change is a significant driver of biodiversity loss in the 21st century, primarily by affecting species distributions. We employed an optimized MaxEnt model to investigate concurrent habitat trends of giant pandas and sympatric endangered species-forest musk deer-under various climate scenarios in the Liangshan Mountains. Additionally, we assessed the effectiveness of protected area boundaries designed for flagship species. Our findings indicate that both species are projected to face different levels of habitat reduction, with declines ranging from 6.73% to 16.24% for giant pandas and from 1.53% to 24.17% for forest musk deer. Additionally, both species show a trend of migration towards the central areas and higher elevations in the Liangshan Mountains. The areas of jointly suitable habitat are also expected to decrease by 15.37%-37.15%, and the proportion of jointly suitable habitat within their respective suitable habitats will also diminish, highlighting both commonalities and differences in their responses to climate change. The overall habitat suitability for giant pandas is expected to improve, while the suitability for forest musk deer is expected to decline. However, habitat suitability within protected areas remains consistently higher than outside these zones, suggesting that the current boundaries of the protected areas are likely to remain effective in maintaining suitable environmental conditions for both species under future climate scenarios. We recommend developing joint conservation strategies for species inhabiting the Liangshan Mountains, where jointly suitable habitats are either stable or on the rise. These areas may serve as potential refuges for mammals with similar habitat preferences as climate change progresses. Our results also yield critical insights for biodiversity conservation in China and worldwide. They are especially pertinent in contexts where conservation frameworks prioritize a single flagship species, thereby overlooking the ecological requirements of sympatric yet equally endangered species.