Retail food sales in Nunavut, Canada not impacted by short-term weather-related inaccessibility of trails used for Inuit subsistence harvesting

Inuit have long utilized trail networks for subsistence harvest. Fueled by climate change, increasingly volatile environmental and weather conditions in the Canadian Arctic territory of Nunavut have made these routes less reliable and more dangerous-jeopardizing availability of traditional foods. Qualitative research indicates communities adapt by grocery shopping. We modeled consecutive days of trail inaccessibility on total grocery and meat product sales, respectively, of a market-dominant retailer in 13 Nunavut communities. Although we hypothesized positive associations between trail inaccessibility and store purchasing, we observed negligible negative associations; meanwhile, socioeconomic factors like pay dates yielded strong, positive associations. In light of the null findings with respect to trail inaccessibility, we discuss key limitations of our approach and potential alternative explanations that might account for these unexpected findings, including the ecological level of analysis potentially masking subgroup vulnerabilities relative to exposure or outcomes, hunters' possible risk tolerance elasticities, and food sourced beyond our partner retailer (such as from the other major retail chain or through food sharing networks). Given the local nutrition and economic transitions-away from traditional food and subsistence livelihoods-communities may face reduced day-to-day vulnerability to trail accessibility disruptions. As the wage-based economy expands and the contemporary diet includes more energy-dense, processed store-bought food, Inuit communities may become increasingly sensitive to macro-political and economic pressures on their food system and sovereignty.