Kinematic Model of Flow and Nutrient Transport in North Biscayne Bay, Florida

A kinematic model of the flow dynamics and nutrient transport in a long and narrow lagoonal estuary with multiple canal discharges and tidal inlets is developed and demonstrated for the nutrient-impaired segments of North Biscayne Bay located in South Florida. The model is substantially less complex and costly than using coupled fine-scale hydrodynamic and fate and transport models. The proposed model formulation directly utilizes most of the relevant time-series measurements of flows and water quality, is able to resolve the flow dynamics between bay segments, is capable of predicting hourly average nutrient concentrations in the bay that are relatively close to point measurements taken at specific times, and can quantify the sensitivity of nutrient concentrations in the impaired segments of the bay to nutrient load reductions in the nutrient-laden canal discharges. The model is used to identify the source loadings that should be the targets of load reductions to remediate the impairments in the bay and to assess the effectiveness of using a monthly sampling protocol to measure water quality within the bay segments.