Study of thunderstorm formation conditions at the research station “Ice Base Cape Baranova”

The paper study presents a review of synoptic conditions and an analysis of atmospheric radiosonde data collected at the “Ice Base Cape Baranova” research station, operated by the Federal State Budgetary Institution “AARI”. The station is located on the coast of the Shokal’sky Strait at the northern tip of Bolshevik Island (Severnaya Zemlya archipelago). The analysis includes four cases of thunderstorm activity: one case in June 2019, two cases in June 2020 and one case in July 2022. Notably, the first recorded thunderstorm at the station occurred on June 20, 2019. The analysis focused on morning radiosonde data (00:00 UTC) and aimed to construct and evaluate aerological diagrams and calculate various instability indices, including the Boyden Index, K-index, Vertical Totals, Cross Totals and Total Totals. The findings reveal diverse synoptic conditions at the surface, while the upper troposphere consistently exhibited the influence of baric trough from the southwest and height ridges from the southeast. In all the cases analyzed, a temperature inversion was observed in the surface layer, typically indicating stable atmospheric stratification. However, the actual occurrence of thunderstorms suggests alternative factors, such as orographic influences and warm air advection, may give rise to these convective processes. Although the calculated instability indices generally remained below established thresholds, indicating a low probability of thunderstorms, thunderstorm events were nevertheless recorded. This discrepancy highlights the need to adapt existing criteria for predicting thunderstorm activity in the High Arctic. This study underscores the importance of further research to enhance understanding of atmospheric dynamics in Polar Regions and improve predictive models for convective weather phenomena.