Enacting the future: institutions, temporal affordances, and the formation of expectations

Abstract This paper develops an enactivist theory of expectation formation by introducing the concept of temporal affordances: institutionally structured possibilities for engaging with the future. Standard economic accounts treat expectations as internal beliefs and institutions as external constraints, while subjectivist approaches locate them in imagination and treat institutions as points of orientation. In contrast, this paper argues that institutions co-constitute expectations themselves. Drawing on affordance theory and the anthropology of time, it identifies four dimensions through which institutions shape temporal orientation: horizon, openness, grounding, and valence. Rather than understanding expectations as internal representations, it argues that engagement with institutional temporal affordances gives rise to distinct modes of expectation – institutionally enacted ways of relating to the future. By showing how different affordance configurations generate heterogeneity in expectations, the paper offers a conceptual tool for comparative institutional analysis and shows how institutions structure varieties of temporal orientation that underpin economic and social life.