ANALYTICAL APPROACHES TO FORECASTING SOCIAL MEDIA AUDIENCES WITH THE INVOLVEMENT OF SMM SPECIALISTS

The article examined the forecasting of social media development dynamics using Facebook and Instagram as examples for the year 2025, applying a combined approach that takes into account not only the number of followers but also the quality of audience engagement. It was noted that a simple follower count does not provide a complete picture; therefore, the study employed engagement rate and reach rate metrics, which enables the formation realistic forecasts of user activity. The methodology was based on analytical data from IAB Ukraine for 2023–2024, adapted for forecasting purposes. The forecast results indicated varying audience development trends across different sectors: on Facebook, there is a prevailing tendency towards a decline in the number of followers in most categories, including agriculture, culture, delivery services and finance, whereas the fields of fashion, retail and soft drinks show growth. On Instagram, most categories are projected to experience steady growth, particularly in fashion, the automotive industry, media and tourism. The practical significance of the study lied in the fact that its results can be used by SMM specialists, marketers and business owners to manage audiences effectively, optimise communication strategies and enhance user engagement in the digital environment. This is particularly relevant in the context of rapid changes within the digital ecosystem, where the ability to respond swiftly to trends and audience interests is crucial for brand success. The data obtained were presented in the form of tables and histograms illustrating changes in follower dynamics by category during 2023–2025, enabling conclusions to be drawn regarding user behaviour patterns and the priorities of marketing strategies across different social networks. The study has practical value for SMM specialists, marketers and business owners seeking to manage their audiences effectively and optimise their communications within the digital environment.