Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Potential Distribution of Conogethes punctiferalis in China

<i>Conogethes punctiferalis</i> (Guenée, 1854) is a polyphagous pest with a wide host range and strong reproductive ability, and its potential threat to agricultural production cannot be ignored. Based on the optimized maximum entropy niche model, this study evaluated potential suitable habitats for <i>C. punctiferalis</i> in China and their dynamic changes under current conditions (Model 1: bioclimatic factors + elevation; Model 2: bioclimatic factors + elevation + human activity) and four different future climate scenarios (Model 3: bioclimatic factors + elevation + human activity). The results suggest that the potential suitable habitats for <i>C. punctiferalis</i> are mainly driven by a combination of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and human activity. Under current conditions, suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in southern Northeast China, North China, the Yangtze River Basin, and its south regions; highly suitable areas are primarily located in the main maize-producing regions of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The area of suitable habitats predicted by Model 2 is smaller than that predicted by Model 1. Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution range of <i>C. punctiferalis</i> will show an expanding trend, with the expanded area larger than the contracted area. Compared with Model 2, the suitable areas are expected to increase under Model 3 by approximately 91,799 km² to 723,711 km². This study provides an important basis for assessing the potential hazard risk of <i>C. punctiferalis</i> and is of major significance in guiding the formulation of targeted integrated pest management strategies and protecting the safety of agricultural production.