Modeling of the process of time change in quantitative indicators of transmission reliability of multi-axle wheeled chassis at the design stage

Multi-axle wheeled chassis are widely used to solve various transport and logistics tasks in areas with difficult terrain, unfavorable soil conditions, the presence of natural obstacles and the lack of minimum necessary transport infrastructure. The object of the study is a mechanical transmission of a multiaxial wheeled chassis with several drive and non-driving axles. The purpose of the study is to create an engineering methodology for predicting the kinetics (changes over time or depending on mileage) of quantitative indicators of the reliability of the transmission as a whole and its key subsystems during the entire service life of the chassis. The methodology is based on the developed probabilistic mathematical model. It allows you to predict the kinetics of reliability indicators of both the mechanical transmission as a whole and its subsystems, taking into account the timing and volume of repair and restoration work. The calculation of the probabilities of finding the transmission and its subsystems in good condition at any given time is based on solving the Chapman-Kolmogorov system of linear differential equations. Periodic reformulation of this system of equations is provided at the time of scheduled repairs of the wheeled chassis. The results of a test calculation example and their analysis are presented in relation to the mechanical transmission of a 6-axle wheeled chassis with a 12×10 wheel formula.