The Impact of War on Cross-Border Trade: The Case of the Ukraine Conflict and Exports From the Lublin Metropolitan Area

The paper focuses on the impact of war on foreign trade in a region bordering a conflict zone, using the example of merchandise exports from the Lublin Metropolitan Area (LOM) to Ukraine. The effects of military conflicts on trade have been relatively under-researched in global literature. Inthe case of Poland, there is a clear research gap that this analysis aims to partially address. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the exports of companies located in the LOM amid the dynamic changes triggered by the war in Ukraine. The research covers the period from 2015 to 2023, allowing for the identification of trends over a longer timeframe and an assessment of changes potentially caused by the war in Ukraine in the years 2022–2023. The data was primarily sourced from the National Revenue Administration in Poland. Our findings indicate that the war had a relatively limited impact on the decline of exports from the Lublin Metropolitan Area. In 2023, the decrease in exports to Ukraine was lesser than the overall decline in exports. Furthermore, there was a significant increase in Ukraine’s share as an export market for the LOM-based enterprises. Additionally, the merchandise structure of LOM exports to Ukraine underwent substantial changes during the analysed period. Notably, there was a 22.03 percentage point increase in the share of Section XVII. Transport equipment and a 17.65 percentage point decrease in the share of Section II. Vegetable products. However, it is challenging to directly and unambiguously attribute these shifts to the armed conflict.