Asynchronous abrupt warming across Eurasia since the 1980s

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature change is crucial for addressing global warming, particularly as regional climate systems may have passed critical tipping points. Here, we examine temperature change characteristics and influencing factors across the Eurasia from 1901 to 2022. We identify a significant abrupt temperature increase in the 1980s, revealing asynchronous warming patterns across the continent. Abrupt warming occurred after 1970 at 93.6% of Eurasian grid points, with 78.0% concentrated between 1970 and 1990. This abrupt warming is driven largely by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), explaining 58% of the variation. Early warming hotspots appeared on the Mongolian Plateau and Central Asia, spreading outward. The most significant warming occurs in middle and high latitudes. Regional differences in hydrothermal conditions and cloud cover lead to varying warming timings across Eurasia. Additionally, the warming exhibits significant seasonal asymmetry, with winter warming predominantly driving the abrupt temperature increase, accounting for 45% of the variance. This is driven by the dominant positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter.

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Publication Details

Journal
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Published
2025-09-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01209-3
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.11

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Asynchronous abrupt warming across Eurasia since the 1980s

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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Climate variability and models
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article

Asynchronous abrupt warming across Eurasia since the 1980s

Shan Zou, Jiayou Wang, Enzhao Zhu, Zhenzhong Zeng, Weili Duan, Xu Wang, Yansong Li, Ziyang Zhu
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature change is crucial for addressing global warming, particularly as regional climate systems may have passed critical tipping points. Here, we examine temperature change characteristics and influencing factors across the Eurasia from 1901 to 2022. We identify a significant abrupt temperature increase in the 1980s, revealing asynchronous warming patterns across the continent. Abrupt warming occurred after 1970 at 93.6% of Eurasian grid points, with 78.0% concentrated between 1970 and 1990. This abrupt warming is driven largely by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), explaining 58% of the variation. Early warming hotspots appeared on the Mongolian Plateau and Central Asia, spreading outward. The most significant warming occurs in middle and high latitudes. Regional differences in hydrothermal conditions and cloud cover lead to varying warming timings across Eurasia. Additionally, the warming exhibits significant seasonal asymmetry, with winter warming predominantly driving the abrupt temperature increase, accounting for 45% of the variance. This is driven by the dominant positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter.

npj Climate and Atmospheric ScienceVol. 8(1)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Ghent University Hospital (BE), Southern University of Science and Technology (CN), Ghent University (BE), Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (CN), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
Chinese Academy of Sciences, West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Openalex Percentile: Top 19%
Climate variability and models
1.11
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