A Study on the Dynamic Evolution and Influencing Factors of Total Factor Productivity in China’s Civil Aviation Industry Considering Carbon Emissions

This study evaluates China’s civil aviation total factor productivity (TFP) in 2000–2021, treating carbon emissions as undesirable output via the Global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index, with a modified carbon emission estimation coefficient to boost calculation accuracy. Static and dynamic time series regression models analyze short/long-term effects of influencing factors. Results show civil aviation TFP grows ~0.3% annually, stable with cyclical fluctuations, and exhibits dynamic adjustment and mean reversion. Market demand/competition significantly positively affect TFP in both models; technological innovation and capital investment have substantial lagged effects (not significant in the static model). The contributions include three aspects. First, methodological innovation through a revised carbon emission coefficient. Second, theoretical expansion by combining static and dynamic models. Third, macro policy guidance for balancing economic-environmental performance under China’s dual carbon strategy.