Assessing the effects of Forest Cover Change on land surface temperature (LST) using remote sensing and geospatial analysis: a case study of Jimma city and it’s surroundings, southwest Ethiopia

Urbanization and land use land cover (LULC) change significantly influence local climate patterns, particularly land surface temperature (LST). This study investigates the spatial and temporal impact of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on land surface temperature (LST) in Jimma city and its surrounding areas from 1987 to 2019 using geospatial and statistical techniques. By employing an explanatory sequential mixed-methods research design, this research integrates multi-temporal satellite imagery analysis with qualitative data from key informant interviews. The novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive approach, combining the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), and multi-temporal LST regression modeling to assess the relationship between LULC types and LST. The findings revealed a significant increase in settlement and agricultural land from 4.40% and 54.58% in 1987 to 12.27% and 62.40% in 2019, respectively, with a corresponding decrease in forest cover, shrubland, and wetland areas. The mean land surface temperatures soared from 20.53°C and 19.59°C to 26.79°C and 25.82°C from 1987 to 2019 in settlement and agricultural land. A strong negative correlation was observed between LST and NDVI, while a strong positive correlation was found between LST and NDBI indicate highly statistically significant (ρ = 0.000). These results highlight the profound impact of urbanization on the local climate and provide crucial insights for sustainable urban planning and environmental management in rapidly growing cities like Jimma.