Towards a safe and just operating space for European agriculture

Abstract This study proposes a monitoring framework for European agriculture within the Safe and Just Operating Space (SJOS) concept, integrating environmental thresholds, socio-economic considerations, and the objectives outlined in European Union (EU) policy frameworks. A thorough review of EU policies, including the European Green Deal (EGD), the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and related strategies, informed the adaptation of global SJOS concepts defined for the Planet and Humanity to the specific requirements of the EU agricultural sector. This downscaling to the regional contexts of the EU and the disaggregation to agricultural processes was central to ensuring the framework’s relevance and precision. The methodology identified over 30 indicator domains across 12 thematic areas, aligning global SJOS principles with EU policy targets. These indicators were refined through collaboration with modelling teams and external consultations, ensuring feasibility for use in existing simulation models. Workshops with experts and stakeholders revealed critical gaps, such as in biodiversity and animal welfare, highlighting areas for further model development. The framework enables projections of EU agriculture’s status relative to SJOS across various future scenarios, helping to analyse interdependencies, trade-offs, and synergies among objectives and indicators. The study emphasizes the importance of aligning scientific benchmarks with EU policy targets, including CAP and EGD objectives, while addressing challenges in data integration and interdisciplinary modelling.