Role of Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System in Flood Management: A Study of the 2010 Flood in the Swat Valley, Pakistan

Among non-structural approaches to flood management, the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FF\&EWS) plays a key role in reducing flood risks. This study focuses on the role of FF&EWS in the Swat Valley. The Swat Valley suffered fromnumerous floods. Among them, the2010 flood was a disastrous one. FF&EWS is the main responsibility of the Pakistan Meteorology Department (PMD). To achieve the objectivesof the study, data werecollected from different sourcesandprocessed through different statistical tools. Analysis revealed that rapid change in LULC, encroachment,and deforestation were the major flood-intensifying factors. The increasing population pressure on land resources has pushed people to the flood risk areas,and as a result,people have started development in the flood-prone zone. From the analysis, it was recommended that no construction should be permitted in the vicinity of the River Swat and its tributaries. The development of settlements in vulnerable high-risk zones needs to be restricted. The existing FF&EWS and meteorological network in the Swat valley needsto be extended in order to increase the effectiveness of FF&EWS and minimize the impacts of recurrent floods. The study concludes that the effectiveness of FF and EWS in the Swat Valley can be improved by addressing the issues faced by FEWS.