Impacts of climate change on the water budget elements in the Faria catchment, Palestine

ABSTRACT This study assesses the impacts of climate change on water budget components in the semi-arid Faria catchment, Palestine. Using climate projections from SimClim AR6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and hydrological modeling via the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, the research evaluates changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation for the years 2060 and 2100. Calibration and validation show good model performance (R2 = 0.67, NSE = 0.64). Results reveal declining precipitation and relative humidity, with groundwater recharge expected to drop by up to 27.43% and surface runoff by up to 43.31% by 2100. Simultaneously, rising temperatures lead to higher evapotranspiration, reaching a 9.64% increase under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. These shifts result in a significant decrease in overall water yield, posing a threat to water security in the region. The study highlights the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies and promotes the use of integrated climate-hydrological modeling for sustainability planning in similar semi-arid catchments.