Potential impacts of the EU’s biodiversity strategy on the EU and global forest sector and on the risk of biodiversity loss

Abstract We analyzed the potential impacts of the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 (EUBDS) on forest sector production within the EU and Norway (EU + N) and globally using scenario analysis, which was quantified using a partial equilibrium model for the global forest sector. When EUBDS targets for 30% of terrestrial land under non-strict protection and 10% under strict protection by 2030 are applied at the country level, roundwood harvests in EU + N are projected to decrease by 25 Mm 3 in 2035 compared to harvest levels without EUBDS. Two-thirds of the EU harvest decrease is offset by increased production in other regions, replicating a phenomenon known as production leakage. We also compared biodiversity indicators in EU + N countries that are expected to reduce harvests, with those in countries expected to increase their harvests. While harvests are projected to shift to countries with, on average, relatively large forest areas per capita, many of these countries perform worse on indicators associated with both direct and indirect risks of biodiversity degradation, such as forest governance, the representativeness of protected areas in relation to ecosystem or biome diversity, and the protection status of red-listed species. If forest conservation measures are implemented in North America alongside EUBDS, harvests in EU + N countries would decrease less, but biodiversity-rich tropical countries would face greater pressure for intensified harvests. Additional policy measures are required to mitigate the negative environmental effects in these countries.