Identifying wind and bark beetle disturbance predictors across German forests

• Key predictors of wind and bark beetle disturbances are elevation, Norway spruce percentage, precipitation and slope. • Model transferability across national and regional scales was limited. • Future maps predict a slight decrease in disturbance area under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. • Our findings can guide strategies to reduce forest susceptibility to wind and bark beetle disturbances. German forests face significant threats from windstorms and bark beetle outbreaks, but our understanding of factors driving these disturbances remains incomplete at the national and regional levels. This study aims to identify the strongest predictors of forest susceptibility to wind and bark beetle disturbances at the country and regional level in Germany, and to predict future disturbance rate (2041–2070). We fitted a random forest model using data at the national and regional (landscape) levels in Germany, including windstorms and bark beetle disturbances (from peak disturbance years 2018 and 2020) and forest, climatic, and topographic variables. We assessed the performance and transferability of the random forest model across different scales and generated a future disturbance map for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2041–2070. Key susceptibility predictors in Germany included Norway spruce and conifer percentage, elevation, slope, and precipitation. The model’s performance varied across landscapes, performing best in the north German plain and western central uplands, and model transferability was highly constrained. The future disturbance maps predict a slight decrease in disturbance area under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 compared to predictions based on the current species distribution. Our results highlight priority indicators for susceptibility management aiming to decrease wind and bark beetle susceptibility and safeguard the sustainable provisioning of forest ecosystem services.