ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF TRANSITIONING LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES TO FUEL CELL ELECTRIC TECHNOLOGY: A CASE STUDY

This study evaluates the feasibility of California achieving a fully zero-emission light-duty vehicle (ZEV) fleet by 2035 through the exclusive adoption of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), advancing beyond the state's ambitious goals to address the intensifying global climate crisis. While California's current regulatory framework supports a mix of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen FCEVs, and other technologies, this research focuses on a comprehensive hydrogen FCEV transition to fully decarbonize transportation. Forecasting models, including the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), project a shortfall of 17-22 million zero-emission vehicles under existing sales trajectories, emphasizing the need for accelerated adoption strategies. Lifecycle assessments reveal that hydrogen FCEVs emit only 141,000 tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub> annually for a fleet of 28 million vehicles, compared to 98 million tonnes emitted by gasoline vehicles and 1.67 million tonnes by BEVs. Additionally, hydrogen FCEVs generate lower emissions of CO, NOx, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), making them particularly suitable for long-range and high-utilization applications. However, achieving this transition requires an estimated $141 billion annually for hydrogen production, infrastructure development, and consumer incentives. This case study highlights the potential of hydrogen FCEVs to accelerate decarbonization in California, offering a scalable framework for global innovation, strategic investments, and robust climate policy.