Dynamics of Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas of <scp> <i>Plantago asiatica</i> </scp> L. Under Climate Change: A Case Study of the Uppers of Dadu River—Minjiang River Basin

Global warming has induced significant shifts in spatiotemporal environmental patterns of plants. <i>P. asiatica</i>, highly prized for its edible and medicinal value, is widely harvested and utilized by residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River. This study employed ensemble models to simulate the potential distribution of <i>P. asiatica</i> in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution and niche. Additionally, a production dynamics model integrating the synergistic effects of ecological suitability and nutritional components of <i>P. asiatica</i> was developed to delineate its current and future potential cultivation zones. The results revealed the following: (1) Currently, both suitable habitats and cultivation zones of <i>P. asiatica</i> are primarily distributed in low-altitude river valley areas within the upper reaches of the Minjiang River and Dadu River. (2) In future periods, high-quality suitable habitats and cultivation zones of <i>P. asiatica</i> will increase to varying degrees, with its niche exhibiting a trend of migration toward higher-altitude regions. (3) Under the SSP5-8.5 climate emission scenario, the areas of suitable habitats and cultivation zones of <i>P. asiatica</i> will experience the greatest expansion, accompanied by the largest amplitude of niche migration. This study will facilitate the formulation of suitability-based management strategies for <i>P. asiatica</i> in the upper reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River, and provide a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of mountain plant resources under climate change.