Regime shift in extreme wildfires within northern Eurasia and their impacts

Abstract Wildfires heighten the risks of ecosystem degradation and increase carbon emissions, significantly impacting ecological stability and climate change. However, changes in extreme wildfire regimes and their consequential impact on carbon emissions and burned area (BA) remain unclear. Our results indicate that extreme wildfires in northern Eurasia exhibit a latitudinal shift in intensity and frequency during 2003–2023. Within the historically fire-prone latitude band of approximately 50° N–60° N, a declining trend is observed in both intensity and frequency of extreme wildfires. Conversely, a northward shift of high-intensity extreme wildfires brings unprecedented carbon emissions and BAs to high-latitude regions that are rich in forest carbon storage and permafrost. Although extreme wildfires account for only 10% of all fire events, they contribute to over 30% of total wildfire carbon emissions and BAs across most regions of northern Eurasia.