ECD Prediction Model for Riser Drilling Annulus in Ultra-Deepwater Hydrate Formations

To address the challenges of accurately predicting and controlling the annular equivalent circulating density (ECD) in ultra-deepwater gas hydrate-bearing formations of the Qiongdongnan Basin, where joint production of hydrates and shallow gas through dual horizontal wells faces a narrow safe pressure window and hydrate decomposition effects, this study develops an ECD prediction model that incorporates riser drilling operations. The model couples four sub-models, including the static equivalent density of drilling fluid, annular pressure loss, wellbore temperature–pressure field, and hydrate decomposition rate, and is solved iteratively using MatlabR2024a. The results show that hydrate cuttings begin to decompose in the upper section of the riser (at a depth of approximately 600 m), causing a reduction of about 2 °C in wellhead temperature, a decrease of 0.15 MPa in bottomhole pressure, and an 8 kg/m3 reduction in ECD at the toe of the horizontal section. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis indicates that increasing the rate of penetration (ROP), drilling fluid density, and flow rate significantly elevates annular ECD. When ROP exceeds 28 m/h, the initial drilling fluid density is greater than 1064 kg/m3, or the drilling fluid flow rate is higher than 21 L/s, the risk of formation loss becomes considerable. The model was validated against field data from China’s first hydrate trial production, achieving a prediction accuracy of 93%. This study provides theoretical support and engineering guidance for safe drilling and hydraulic parameter optimization in ultra-deepwater hydrate-bearing formations.