Export of Indian buffalo meat - A spatial visualization and temporal analysis

This study examines the export performance of Indian buffalo meat through spatial visualization and temporal analysis. As the world’s largest buffalo meat exporter, India contributes significantly to agricultural trade and foreign exchange earnings. The current research analyses three decades (1994-2024) of export data, revealing distinct growth phases: steady growth (1995-2004, CAGR 11.09%), rapid expansion (2005-2014, CAGR 15.71%), and decline (2014-2024, CAGR -1.9%). Markov chain analysis identifies Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia as the most stable importers, retaining 73.2%, 74.8%, and 42.6% of their market shares respectively. Revealed Comparative Advantage demonstrates India’s consistent advantage in animal products export. Spatial visualization through hotspot analysis identifies Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Bihar, Kerala, and Punjab as key production regions. Temporal analysis using Chow and Wald tests confirms significant structural breaks in 2010 and 2015, coinciding with policy shifts and market dynamics. The Cuddy-Della Valle Instability index shows decreasing instability over time, with 2014-2024 exhibiting low instability (CDVI 7.37%) despite negative growth. Future projections suggest steady growth potential, reaching 1.745 million MT by 2030. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers to enhance India’s buffalo meat export competitiveness through targeted interventions in production, processing, and trade facilitation.