Insights from leptohadronic modelling of the brightest blazar flare and the first search of delayed neutrinos from blazar flares

The blazar 3C 454.3 experienced a major flare in November 2010, making it the brightest $\gamma$-ray source in the sky of the Fermi-LAT observatory. Motivated by the $3\sigma$ association of a $\gtrsim 290$ TeV muon neutrino IceCube170922A with an electromagnetic flare in TXS 0506+056 and noting that 3C 454.3 was up to $\sim 100$ times brighter than TXS 0506+056, we enquire what level of the neutrino flux we could expect from the brightest blazar flare of 3C 454.3. We construct a neutrino light curve of 3C 454.3 and estimate the expected neutrino yield at energies $\geq 100$ TeV for 3C 454.3 to be up to $6 \times10^{-3}$ muon neutrinos per year. We extrapolate our model findings to the light curves of all Fermi-LAT flat-spectrum radio quasars. We find that next-generation neutrino telescopes are expected to detect approximately one multimessenger ($\gamma + \nu_{\mu}$) flare per year from bright blazars with neutrino peak energy in the hundreds TeV - hundreds PeV energy range and show that the electromagnetic flare peak can precede the neutrino arrival by months to years. Finally, we cross-match the IceCube very-high-energy neutrino alerts from the IceCat-1 catalogue and Fermi-LAT light curves and find a few neutrinos spatially associated with bright blazars lagging behind their major $\gamma$-ray flares by $10^{2}-1.5\times 10^{3}$ d.

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Publication Details

Published
2025-09-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.22323/1.501.1149
Primary Topic
Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
Type
article
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article

Insights from leptohadronic modelling of the brightest blazar flare and the first search of delayed neutrinos from blazar flares

Foteini Oikonomou, Egor Podlesnyi
Astrophysics and Cosmic Phenomena
article

Insights from leptohadronic modelling of the brightest blazar flare and the first search of delayed neutrinos from blazar flares

Foteini Oikonomou, Egor Podlesnyi
article en

Abstract

The blazar 3C 454.3 experienced a major flare in November 2010, making it the brightest $\gamma$-ray source in the sky of the Fermi-LAT observatory. Motivated by the $3\sigma$ association of a $\gtrsim 290$ TeV muon neutrino IceCube170922A with an electromagnetic flare in TXS 0506+056 and noting that 3C 454.3 was up to $\sim 100$ times brighter than TXS 0506+056, we enquire what level of the neutrino flux we could expect from the brightest blazar flare of 3C 454.3. We construct a neutrino light curve of 3C 454.3 and estimate the expected neutrino yield at energies $\geq 100$ TeV for 3C 454.3 to be up to $6 \times10^{-3}$ muon neutrinos per year. We extrapolate our model findings to the light curves of all Fermi-LAT flat-spectrum radio quasars. We find that next-generation neutrino telescopes are expected to detect approximately one multimessenger ($\gamma + \nu_{\mu}$) flare per year from bright blazars with neutrino peak energy in the hundreds TeV - hundreds PeV energy range and show that the electromagnetic flare peak can precede the neutrino arrival by months to years. Finally, we cross-match the IceCube very-high-energy neutrino alerts from the IceCat-1 catalogue and Fermi-LAT light curves and find a few neutrinos spatially associated with bright blazars lagging behind their major $\gamma$-ray flares by $10^{2}-1.5\times 10^{3}$ d.

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Insights from leptohadronic modelling of the brightest blazar flare and the first search of delayed neutrinos from blazar flares — Foteini Oikonomou, Egor Podlesnyi · (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS