Integrating ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity to assess ecological restoration potential and determine thresholds in the Wujiang River Basin, southwest China

• Integrating ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity was used to assess restoration potential. • The Wujiang River Basin shows a southwest-to-northeast gradient in restoration potential. • Highest potential (>0.9) in Guiyang-Qingzhen and Ertang-Langdai areas. • Key thresholds identified: temperature (14.2 °C), precipitation (980 mm), DEM (1,757 m), FVC (24 %). • Tailored strategies based on local conditions support sustainable restoration. Understanding the ecological restoration potential of a region and the thresholds of its influencing factors is essential for evaluating ecosystem quality, guiding ecological restoration initiatives, and facilitating regional sustainable development. This study employs an integrated approach combining entropy and catastrophe progression methods to evaluate the ecological restoration potential of the Wujiang River Basin across three dimensions: ecosystem services, ecological sensitivity, and ecological quality. The results indicate that the ecological restoration potential exhibits a distinct spatial gradient, with higher values in the southwest and lower values in the northeast. Notably, the Guiyang-Qingzhen and Ertang-Langdai ecological functional areas, located in the central and western regions, have restoration potential values greater than 0.9. Using the constraint line method, we identified thresholds for key drivers of restoration potential: temperature (14.2 °C), annual precipitation (980 mm), elevation (1,757 m), and fractional vegetation cover (24 %). These insights clarify spatial patterns and limiting factors of ecological restoration potential within the basin. Based on these results, we propose targeted restoration measures for the major ecological areas of the basin, including natural forest conservation, soil and water conservation, rocky desertification mitigation, and pollution control. These recommendations aim to support basin-wide ecological protection and restoration, promote sustainable development, and enhance harmony between humans and nature.