Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise

Abstract Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors such as land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. Here we address these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled scenarios of shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding until 2100 than does the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions largely influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating the necessity of appropriate policy design to manage coastal risks.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Climate Change
Published
2025-09-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02439-2
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.21
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article

Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise

Garry Peterson, Robert J. Nicholls, Jie Fan, Murray W. Scown et al.
2 citations
Nature Climate Change
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
2.21
article

Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise

Garry Peterson, Robert J. Nicholls, Jie Fan, Murray W. Scown, Lennart Olsson, Detlef Peter van Vuuren, Yao He, Yafei Wang, Manchun Li, Yuxuan Ye
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Abstract Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors such as land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. Here we address these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled scenarios of shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding until 2100 than does the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions largely influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating the necessity of appropriate policy design to manage coastal risks.

Nature Climate ChangeVol. 15(10)
University of East Anglia (GB), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL), Stockholm Resilience Centre (SE), Stockholm University (SE), Lund University (SE), Utrecht University (NL), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Swedish Species Information Centre (SE), Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application (CN), Tyndall Centre (GB), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (CN), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), University of Southampton (GB), Nanjing University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 11%
Flood Risk Assessment and Management
2.21
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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