Strategic forecasting of GHG intensity: Econometrically enhanced LCA for the Singapore-Rotterdam containership green corridor

• Introduces a novel integration of LCA with Holt-Winters additive forecasting using econometric indicators (GDP, population, TEU demand) to assess marine fuel GHG intensity over time. • Forecasts the GHG intensity of MDO, bio-methanol, and e-methanol on the Singapore–Rotterdam containership green corridor until 2050 under the FuelEU and EU ETS frameworks. • Demonstrates that e-methanol produced via solar energy achieves the lowest WTW emissions at -24.49 g CO₂ Eq./MJ, meeting FuelEU targets until 2045. • Sensitivity analysis confirms that e-methanol remains the most cost-effective option under ±20% variation in FuelEU penalties and EU ETS allowance prices. • Provides a forward-looking decision-support model for policymakers and shipowners to align fleet decarbonization with evolving transport-environment regulations. Green shipping corridors are networks of ports and shipping lanes designated exclusively for low and zero-carbon alternative fuels. By sharing the expenses and benefits of using these fuels, participants in these corridors are incentivized to do so. The Port of Rotterdam and the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to establish the world's longest green and digital corridor, facilitating low- and zero-carbon shipping. Currently, there is a lack of studies and research determining the actual green character of this specific green corridor. Here is a forecast based on econometric parameters (GDP, population, TEU demand) and the integration between LCA and the Holt-Winters additive method, evaluating the GHG intensity of bio-methanol, e-methanol, and MDO utilized by an 8000 TEU containership in this green corridor until 2050. It is reported that e-methanol produced by solar power has the lowest WTW emissions with -24,49 g CO 2 Eq./ MJ, a value that aligns with the Fuel EU targets until 2045. Starting with Fuel EU, the total amount of penalties for that specific fuel choice is 80.673.138,5 €, and according to the EU ETS, the highest amount needed to be paid for allowances is 4.352.943,4 € in 2045. This study demonstrates the critical importance of the source of electricity during production and the need for additional investments in renewables in Rotterdam and Singapore, as only e-methanol, as opposed to bio-methanol and MDO, can be considered a promising net-zero pathway for shipping and a cost-effective option in the coming years until 2050.