Armed conflict-driven environmental degradation and uneven socio-ecological resilience in Tigray, Ethiopia

The armed conflict on Tigray, in Ethiopia (2020–2022), triggered one of the most alarming socio-ecological crises in recent history, jeopardizing decades of progress in environmental restoration and livelihood development. Widespread deforestation, soil degradation, and the collapse of local institutions have left the region’s ecosystems and communities in a state of acute vulnerability. Using an integrated socio-ecological systems (SES) framework, the study applied vegetation index (NDVI) analysis, soil erosion modeling (RUSLE), vegetation plot surveys, and household-level socio-economic assessments across three districts. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated recovery by revealing how the armed conflict has accelerated vegetation loss, by 57% in Abergelle-Yechila, 55.5% in Samre, and 10.9% in Atsbi, and increased annual soil erosion by up to 5.5 tons/ha. Livelihoods were shattered due to infrastructure destruction, livestock loss, blocked markets, and restricted mobility. Fuelwood dependence soared in the absence of electricity and functional governance, deepening forest degradation. Yet, in contrast, Atsbi’s stronger enforcement of local bylaws offered a glimpse of resilience, demonstrating how community-based conservation can mitigate environmental collapse even amid conflict. These findings highlight the urgent need for conflict-sensitive restoration strategies, including reforestation, sustainable land management, and the revitalization of local governance. Prioritizing alternative energy sources and fostering active community engagement are essential steps toward rebuilding a more resilient socio-ecological system in post-conflict Tigray.