Coupling coordination and driving factors of the water-energy-food nexus in China: A sustainable development perspective

• This study evaluates the WEF coupling coordination degree across 30 Chinese provinces from 2006 to 2023. • A hybrid AHP–entropy weighting method was used to construct a comprehensive indicator system for WEF subsystems. • The spatial and temporal evolution of CCD was analyzed using Moran’s I, the GTWR model, and LISA cluster detection. • The GTWR model captures dynamic and region-specific drivers of CCD across space and time. Water, energy, and food (WEF) are crucial for human survival, making studying the WEF nexus in China vital for sustainable development. This work proposes an evaluation indicator system and analyzes the comprehensive evaluation level, coupling coordination degree (CCD), and spatiotemporal evolution using the comprehensive evaluation model and CCD model. A spatial autocorrelation model is used to examine the CCD across 30 regions of China. Additionally, the geographic spatio-temporal weighted model (GTWR) and geographical detector model are used to pinpoint the driving factors affecting the CCD of the WEF nexus. The results reveal a steady improvement in WEF nexus coordination nationwide, accompanied by significant regional disparities. While eastern provinces exhibit higher and earlier coordination levels, central regions show accelerated progress, and western provinces remain constrained by resource endowments. Moreover, the driving factors of CCD demonstrate pronounced spatial–temporal heterogeneity, with expenditure on R&D funding, disposable income per capita, and GDP growth rate exerting varying influences across provinces and over time. Based on these results, recommendations are made to strengthen food production, promote clean energy development, and optimize water resource structures to enhance the WEF nexus across provinces in China.