An Empirical Analysis of Regulatory Enforcement and Institutional Frameworks in Controlling Counterfeit Automotive Spare Parts

Counterfeit automotive parts threaten road safety and drain fiscal revenue in emerging markets. This study evaluates how Tanzania’s regulatory enforcement and institutional architecture influence counterfeit-spare-part prevalence in Dar es Salaam. A mixed-methods design combined 100 structured questionnaires, 20 key-informant interviews, and laboratory tests on 25 market-purchased components. Survey data were analyzed with χ², t, OLS, and logistic regression; interviews were thematically coded in NVivo, and conformity tests followed OEM standards. Results show a 55 % mean Counterfeit-Prevalence Index and a 64 % laboratory failure rate, concentrated in high-turnover consumables. Each one-point rise on a five-point enforcement scale reduces counterfeit exposure by 9.2 percentage points (β = –9.16, p < .001), yet perceived inspection remains low beyond port gates. Interviews cite manpower shortages, token fines, and HS-code mis-declaration as key enablers. The findings call for profit-scaled penalties, a specialized IP court, AI risk-profiling with devanning-yard scanners, blockchain traceability, and a nationwide QR/USSD “Scan Before You Fit” campaign to couple stronger deterrence with informed demand.