Forecasting the Beef and Veal Meat Production in Peninsular Malaysia

This study forecasts beef and veal meat production in Peninsular Malaysia, which is reliant on about 80% of its imports to meet the domestic demand. With Malaysia’s aspiration to achieve 50% self-sufficiency by 2030, a seasonal pattern is investigated using a SARIMA model. Due to high reliance on imports and the poor level of self-sufficiency, Malaysia’s beef and veal sectors are in an extremely vulnerable position. Precise production projections remain paramount for the three main reasons of resource management, reduction of market volatility, and the realization of food security. These reasons are a few factors affecting the self-sufficiency of beef and veal meat, while this study only focuses on the production of beef and veal meat. The objective of this study is to determine the best models using Box-Jenkins that are suitable for beef and veal meat production and to forecast the production of beef and veal meat in Peninsular Malaysia using the best selected model. This work applies to the SARIMA models in predicting the production of beef and veal. The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) will be applied to choose the best model. Based on the results of the analysis, the SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,0) fit was the best. Monthly data from January 2016 through December 2023 were used. Forecasted production trends for 2024 included upscaling on religious and cultural occasions. The SARIMA model accurately predicted the future values since it caught the prior pattern. This research will develop a case for the need to have appropriate forecasting in order to improve self-sufficiency and cut overdependence on imports. This is in line with the national policy objectives to enhance local production and to stabilize the beef and veal market. It will contribute to agricultural policies in Malaysia with a robust forecasting tool and policy analyses. The paper points toward the potential that modern farming could have in fulfilling the targets of sustainability and food security.