Harnessing ESG Sustainability Uncertainty, Financial Development and Information Technology for Energy Transition

By unraveling the electrifying nexus between ESG sustainability uncertainty, financial development, information technology, trade policy uncertainty, and economic growth, this study sheds light on how these forces collectively shape the trajectory of the United States’ energy transition. Utilizing quarterly data from 2002 Q1 to 2024 Q4, we employ the novel Quantile-on-Quantile ARDL (QQARDL) framework to capture the heterogeneous and distribution-dependent dynamics of these relationships. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to apply QQARDL in assessing the simultaneous effects of institutional uncertainty, financial and technological drivers, and macroeconomic growth on energy transition outcomes in the U.S. The QQARDL results confirm that ET is cointegrated with ESG uncertainty, ICT, FD, TPU, and economic growth, though the strength and direction of these relationships vary across quantiles. ICT and EG consistently promote ET, ESG, and TPU exert mixed effects, FD is generally constraining, and the negative, significant ECT confirms stable long-run convergence with faster adjustment at higher ET quantiles. Based on these findings, policies were formulated to reduce ESG uncertainty, align financial development with green priorities, expand ICT adoption, stabilize trade frameworks, and harness economic growth to accelerate the U.S. energy transition.