The event-agency-structure framework for explaining continuity and change in foreign and defence policy in Europe: the case of Germany prior to and after the <i>Zeitenwende</i>

After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine many European states began to change their foreign and defence policies. The paper develops and test-drives a new framework to account for variation in the timing, scope, scale, speed and longevity of changes. Why did they happen at this point and not sooner? The Event-Agency-Structure framework revolves around the interplay of factors situated on three analytical planes to explain transitions between political times and degrees of policy change. It is then used to analyse Germany’s foreign and defence policy prior to and after the Chancellor’s Zeitenwende speech. The paper shows that focusing events in 2008 and 2014 differed in their cognitive, functional and affective consequences for Germany from those of the 2022 crisis. It also highlights the growth in international agency together with gradual shifts in ideas. The post-2022 changes are found to be multi-faceted, contested, uneven and fluctuating, thereby challenging initial diagnoses of the country undergoing a profound international orientation change or becoming a Militärmacht. The reasons can be found in the interplay of coalition politics, weak leadership and the electoral appeal of pacifist and Russia-friendly attitudes. Yet, it is premature to diagnose the end of Zeitenwende as key drivers supporting change persist.