Analyzing the impact of geopolitical crises related to the events in Ukraine from 2014 to 2023 on the Russian stock market

Subject. The article deals with the statistical analysis of the impact of 2014–2023 geopolitical crises on the Russian stock market. Objectives. The purpose is to examine the impact of foreign policy events, sanctions, and oil prices on the Russian stock market during the geopolitical crises related to the events in Ukraine from 2014 to 2023. Methods. The study draws on statistical methods and comparative analysis of historical data, foreign policy events, quotations of Russian stock indices and prices for Brent crude oil. Results. The paper demonstrates a strong correlation between Russian stock indices and imposed sanctions in connection with the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014. Regression dependence of the RTSI index on the price of Brent crude oil in 2014 was disrupted during the introduction of significant restrictions by the EU and the United States. Correlation between the Russian IMOEX and RTSI indices from the beginning of 2015 to May 2023 was violated in several cases. The regression dependence of the RTSI index on the price of Brent crude oil was violated in 2018 and 2019 (the introduction of severe sanctions against Russia); from 2022 until the beginning of the CBO, after that the dependence finally disappeared. Conclusions. The findings enable to choose preferred investment strategies. Government agencies responsible for this market functioning will be able to effectively manage it under existing restrictions and negative geopolitical events.