The legacy of the (poor) deceased: The effect of the mortality rate on democracy

Abstract We show that increases in mortality rates causally raise the democracy index within countries, with effects that are robust and consistent across diverse country groups. This relationship is driven by unequal impacts of mortality on economically weaker segments of society, leaving behind a population with higher productivity and greater human capital. These shifts strongly support the mechanisms proposed by Modernization Theory. In extreme cases, elevated mortality can even trigger democratic transitions. Our findings emphasize that changes in health conditions produce distributional effects that reshape political landscapes globally, highlighting the significant role of demographic shocks in political development.