Vessel Arrival Priority Determination in VTS Management: A Dynamic Scoring Approach Integrating Expert Knowledge

Vessel arrival priority determination is a critical factor affecting port safety and efficiency in maritime traffic management, yet existing approaches relying on First Come, First Served (FCFS) principles or empirical judgment have limitations in systematic decision-making. This study aims to develop a systematic decision-making framework that overcomes these limitations by creating an automated, expert knowledge-based priority determination system for vessel traffic services. A dynamic score-based vessel arrival priority determination model was developed integrating the Delphi technique and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP). Basic score evaluation factors were derived through Delphi surveys conducted with 50 field experts, and weights were calculated by differentially applying Fuzzy AHP and conventional AHP according to hierarchical complexity. The proposed model consists of a dynamic scoring system integrating basic scores reflecting vessel characteristics and operational conditions, special situation scores considering emergency situations, and risk scores quantifying safety intervals between vessels. To validate the model performance, simulation-based evaluation with eight scenarios was conducted targeting experienced VTS (Vessel Traffic Services) officers, demonstrating strong agreement with expert judgment across diverse operational conditions. The developed algorithm processes real-time maritime traffic data to dynamically calculate priorities, providing port managers and maritime authorities with an automated decision support tool that enhances VTS management and coastal traffic operations.