Building food security through rural development: estimating climate change and crop production linkages in sub-Saharan Africa

The agriculture sector in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a lifeline for millions, yet it is under relentless threat from climate change and environmental degradation. Despite its importance, rural development has often been overlooked in climate-agriculture research, with much of the existing literature failing to adequately explore how improvements in rural infrastructure and technological access can buffer agricultural productivity against climate shocks. Therefore, this study investigates the relationships between climate variables, rural development, and crop production in SSA from 1999 to 2020. Employing advanced econometric techniques—panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE), feasible generalized least squares (FGLS), and pooled mean group (PMG) estimators—we address cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. In the long-run, higher rainfall and CO2 emissions are associated with greater cereal output, whereas higher temperatures depress production. Rural development is positively related to output, consistent with the role of infrastructure and technological upgrading in rural areas. In quantile analysis, the effect of rural development is strongest at lower-to-median productivity levels and tapers in the upper tail, which indicates catch-up gains among lagging producers. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality analysis further illuminates that rainfall; CO2 emissions, cropped land, and agricultural employment have a bidirectional association with crop output. The findings propose several policy recommendations.